New numbers, New questions
The new monthly number update was posted on the OAP website yesterday, and there are certainly some questions that need answering.
Since the Ministry is no longer providing past numbers, now only giving the most current numbers, I’ve put the last 3 updates into a chart to allow some comparison:
Let’s look at each column one at a time.
Registrations continue to increase
The total number of kids registered for the “program” continues to go up (though calling it an actual program right now is being a little too generous).
This increase would be a combination of newly diagnosed kids being added to the system, as well as older children (already diagnosed) added who may not have qualified for support in the past. Due to Ministry extensions, any newly registered kids are still eligible for one-time funding cheques until a new deadline is set.
It would be interesting to get an updated distribution profile of the ages of kids registered in the program right now. For those that missed it, Mike Moffatt wrote a piece last year based on an FOI request passed along to him, showing the breakdown of each age, and how many were receiving support vs. still waiting.
Childhood Budget invitation numbers going up?
This is a weird one, because Childhood Budgets (CB) aren’t supposed to be a thing anymore, right?
“We need to move away from the Childhood Budgets, and move into a need-based program.”
Newly appointed Minister Todd Smith, July 2019
You can see the Minister discuss this in more detail here, in an interview last summer with Katie Simpson on Power & Politics.
Why are they issuing NEW invitations for Lisa MacLeod’s failed program, that Todd Smith admitted they didn’t get right? The eventual new program isn’t ready, but that’s why they created interim one-time funding (OTF), isn’t it?
The invitations for CBs were flat the previous month, but suddenly are up by 671.
Going back a few months:
“Starting this week, all families on the wait list, who have not yet received a Childhood Budget, will receive an invitation for interim one-time funding of either $5,000 or $20,000 before the end of March 2020.”
Palmer Lockridge, Ministry spokesperson, January 2020
So it seems several parts of that 4 month old statement ended up being false. The Ministry couldn’t meet their self-imposed deadline, and have extended it indefinitely. They also seemed to have found a large pocket of children to send CB invites to instead of the planned OTF. Who are these kids?
Whether your child gets a Childhood Budget or interim one-time funding, it’s for the same dollar amount either way, and the children receiving it are in the same boat, ultimately still waiting for the new needs-based program.
Taken from the OAP website, on the Childhood Budget page:
“Families who accept a childhood budget can be assured that their child’s position on the provincial waitlist will be maintained for entry into the new needs-based, sustainable Ontario Autism Program.”
… then from the one-time funding page:
“Accepting this funding will not impact your eligibility for the new needs-based autism program. Your child or youth’s position on the Ontario Autism Program waitlist will be maintained.”
Will Childhood Budget invites continue to go out throughout the month of May, or just invites for interim one-time funding? I guess we’ll know next month.
One-Time Funding invitations continue to go out, but slowly
2,318 more OTF invites went out last month, but if you do the math, they’re still way behind.
Before the extensions, the promise was to send invites to all eligible families prior to the end of March.
Let’s first look at the numbers covering the period ending on March 31st:
The uncounted numbers: 39,618–10,434–16,877 = 12,307
This includes the kids in the old behaviour plan program, which I previously estimated to be about 7,350 at that point in time. Subtract those away, and you’re left with an estimated 4,957 who were still waiting for a funding invitation.
So what happened over the last month?
Well, we know that 2,318 OTF invites went out, and 671 CB invites went out. That leaves 1,968 who should have received a funding invite before the end of March, and have yet to have been sent one by the end of April.
Then add to that to all the new program applicants, and there are still many invites left to send out.
It’s also important to remember that there are likely many who have received invitations, but have not received any actual funding yet, whether it be due to ministry delays, application complications, or families maybe even deciding to pass on the funding. Regardless of the reason, is the Ministry following up with these people to ensure they’re getting support if the need it?
Since the Ministry does not share the numbers of kids who have actually received funding, instead just sharing the invitation numbers for their arbitrary funding cheques, last month I decided to estimate the missing numbers. I’ve updated that chart below:
Over 30,000 kids have been given invitations to either CBs or OTF, but how many actually have money in-hand?
Even before covid-19 forced therapy centers to temporarily close, how many families who received their cheque were able to get their kids into meaningful therapy?
Overall, the whole program is just a big mess until they have the new program ready to start putting kids into.
By ministry wording, both CB kids and OTF kids are still on the waitlist, while the previously in-service kids have been promised a “seamless transition” into the new program:
“If you have an existing behaviour plan, it can be extended with no gap in service up to its current level of intensity, or less where clinically appropriate, until you transition into core services in the new needs-based autism program.”
The autism community needs more clear messaging from the government about what the future holds for the OAP.
Why are Childhood Budget invitations going out again?
When will the new program be ready?
The longer they delay the new program, the more complicated the transition becomes.
Needs. Based. Therapy. Now.
